If LAL visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.4 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

1.2

Net Rating

4.6

115.0

Offensive Rating

114.9

113.8

Defensive Rating

110.3

98.3

Pace

99.0

LAL (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

LAL wins

2026-05-01 LAL 98 @ HOU 78 LAL W

2026-04-29 LAL 99 @ HOU 93 LAL W

2026-04-26 LAL 96 @ HOU 115 HOU W

2026-04-24 LAL 112 @ HOU 108 LAL W

2026-04-21 LAL 94 @ HOU 101 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score