If LAL visited GSW today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.0 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

1.2

Net Rating

3.2

115.0

Offensive Rating

114.2

113.8

Defensive Rating

111.0

98.3

Pace

99.4

LAL (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

LAL wins

2026-04-09 LAL 119 @ GSW 103 LAL W

2026-02-28 LAL 129 @ GSW 101 LAL W

2026-02-07 LAL 99 @ GSW 105 GSW W

2025-10-21 LAL 119 @ GSW 109 LAL W

2025-04-03 LAL 123 @ GSW 116 LAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score