If LAL visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.3 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

1.2

Net Rating

-9.1

115.0

Offensive Rating

106.7

113.8

Defensive Rating

115.7

98.3

Pace

98.2

LAL (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

LAL wins

2026-01-15 LAL 135 @ CHA 117 LAL W

2025-11-10 LAL 121 @ CHA 111 LAL W

2025-02-19 LAL 100 @ CHA 97 LAL W

2025-01-27 LAL 112 @ CHA 107 LAL W

2024-02-05 LAL 124 @ CHA 118 LAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score