If LAC visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 85.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.7 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.9

Net Rating

-2.8

114.3

Offensive Rating

113.5

109.4

Defensive Rating

116.3

98.2

Pace

100.1

LAC (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

LAC 42-40 W1 Avg margin last 5: +2.0

W GSW

L POR

L OKC

W DAL

W SAC

SAS 74-26 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.6

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

L OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

LAC wins

2026-04-02 LAC 118 @ SAS 99 LAC W

2026-03-16 LAC 119 @ SAS 115 LAC W

2026-03-06 LAC 112 @ SAS 116 SAS W

2025-04-08 LAC 117 @ SAS 122 SAS W

2025-01-29 LAC 128 @ SAS 116 LAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7145 tracked

75.0%

High Conf.

>65% picks

82.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 85.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.0% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score