If LAC visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 61.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.6 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.9

Net Rating

-2.7

114.3

Offensive Rating

111.0

109.4

Defensive Rating

113.7

98.2

Pace

99.5

LAC (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

LAC 42-40 W1 Avg margin last 5: +2.0

W GSW

L POR

L OKC

W DAL

W SAC

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

LAC wins

2026-04-10 LAC 97 @ POR 116 POR W

2026-03-31 LAC 114 @ POR 104 LAC W

2025-12-26 LAC 119 @ POR 103 LAC W

2025-10-26 LAC 107 @ POR 114 POR W

2025-01-16 LAC 118 @ POR 89 LAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score