If LAC visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.9 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.9

Net Rating

-3.0

114.3

Offensive Rating

114.7

109.4

Defensive Rating

117.7

98.2

Pace

98.3

LAC (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

LAC 42-40 W1 Avg margin last 5: +2.0

W GSW

L POR

L OKC

W DAL

W SAC

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

LAC wins

2026-02-01 LAC 117 @ PHX 93 LAC W

2025-11-08 LAC 114 @ PHX 103 LAC W

2025-11-06 LAC 102 @ PHX 115 PHX W

2025-10-24 LAC 102 @ PHX 129 PHX W

2025-03-04 LAC 117 @ PHX 119 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score