If LAC visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.0 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.9

Net Rating

-1.1

114.3

Offensive Rating

113.7

109.4

Defensive Rating

114.8

98.2

Pace

103.4

LAC (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

LAC 42-40 W1 Avg margin last 5: +2.0

W GSW

L POR

L OKC

W DAL

W SAC

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

LAC wins

2025-12-03 LAC 115 @ ATL 92 LAC W

2025-11-10 LAC 105 @ ATL 102 LAC W

2025-03-14 LAC 121 @ ATL 98 LAC W

2025-01-04 LAC 105 @ ATL 131 ATL W

2024-03-17 LAC 110 @ ATL 93 LAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score