If IND visited WAS today, our model would lean Indiana Pacers with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -14.3 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-12.2

115.4

Offensive Rating

105.8

113.3

Defensive Rating

118.0

100.8

Pace

101.8

IND (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

IND wins

2026-02-20 IND 118 @ WAS 131 WAS W

2026-02-19 IND 105 @ WAS 112 WAS W

2025-12-14 IND 108 @ WAS 89 IND W

2025-11-28 IND 86 @ WAS 119 WAS W

2025-04-08 IND 98 @ WAS 104 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score