If IND visited UTA today, our model would lean Indiana Pacers with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -11.3 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-9.2

115.4

Offensive Rating

110.2

113.3

Defensive Rating

119.4

100.8

Pace

100.8

IND (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

IND wins

2026-02-03 IND 131 @ UTA 122 IND W

2025-11-11 IND 128 @ UTA 152 UTA W

2025-04-04 IND 112 @ UTA 140 UTA W

2025-02-03 IND 112 @ UTA 111 IND W

2024-01-15 IND 105 @ UTA 132 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score