If IND visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.2 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-4.1

115.4

Offensive Rating

109.6

113.3

Defensive Rating

113.6

100.8

Pace

100.6

IND (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

IND wins

2026-02-08 IND 104 @ TOR 122 TOR W

2026-01-14 IND 115 @ TOR 101 IND W

2025-11-26 IND 95 @ TOR 97 TOR W

2025-11-15 IND 129 @ TOR 111 IND W

2025-02-26 IND 91 @ TOR 111 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score