If IND visited PHI today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 82.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.4 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-6.3

115.4

Offensive Rating

111.0

113.3

Defensive Rating

117.3

100.8

Pace

98.1

IND (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

IND wins

2026-04-10 IND 105 @ PHI 94 IND W

2026-02-24 IND 135 @ PHI 114 IND W

2026-01-19 IND 104 @ PHI 113 PHI W

2025-12-12 IND 105 @ PHI 115 PHI W

2025-03-14 IND 112 @ PHI 100 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 82.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score