If IND visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.3 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-0.2

115.4

Offensive Rating

108.9

113.3

Defensive Rating

109.1

100.8

Pace

96.5

IND (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

IND wins

2026-03-23 IND 128 @ ORL 126 IND W

2026-01-04 IND 127 @ ORL 135 ORL W

2025-12-31 IND 112 @ ORL 110 IND W

2025-04-11 IND 129 @ ORL 115 IND W

2024-11-13 IND 90 @ ORL 94 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score