If IND visited MIL today, our model would lean Milwaukee Bucks with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.3 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

2.4

115.4

Offensive Rating

115.1

113.3

Defensive Rating

112.7

100.8

Pace

99.9

IND (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

IND wins

2026-03-15 IND 123 @ MIL 134 MIL W

2026-02-06 IND 99 @ MIL 105 MIL W

2025-12-23 IND 111 @ MIL 94 IND W

2025-11-03 IND 117 @ MIL 115 IND W

2025-04-29 IND 118 @ MIL 119 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score