If IND visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 82.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.5 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

4.6

115.4

Offensive Rating

114.9

113.3

Defensive Rating

110.3

100.8

Pace

99.0

IND (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

IND wins

2026-02-02 IND 118 @ HOU 114 IND W

2025-12-29 IND 119 @ HOU 126 HOU W

2025-03-04 IND 102 @ HOU 115 HOU W

2024-11-20 IND 113 @ HOU 130 HOU W

2024-02-06 IND 129 @ HOU 132 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 82.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score