If IND visited DAL today, our model would lean Dallas Mavericks with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.4 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-1.3

115.4

Offensive Rating

113.7

113.3

Defensive Rating

115.0

100.8

Pace

100.2

IND (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

IND wins

2026-02-22 IND 134 @ DAL 130 IND W

2025-10-29 IND 105 @ DAL 107 DAL W

2025-03-19 IND 131 @ DAL 135 DAL W

2024-11-04 IND 134 @ DAL 127 IND W

2024-03-05 IND 137 @ DAL 120 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score