If IND visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 87.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.1 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

9.2

115.4

Offensive Rating

121.0

113.3

Defensive Rating

111.8

100.8

Pace

100.3

IND (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

IND wins

2026-04-05 IND 108 @ CLE 117 CLE W

2026-01-06 IND 120 @ CLE 116 IND W

2025-12-01 IND 135 @ CLE 119 IND W

2025-11-21 IND 109 @ CLE 120 CLE W

2025-05-13 IND 114 @ CLE 105 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 87.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score