If IND visited CHI today, our model would lean Chicago Bulls with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.7 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-1.6

115.4

Offensive Rating

113.2

113.3

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.8

Pace

103.6

IND (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

IND wins

2026-04-01 IND 145 @ CHI 126 IND W

2026-01-28 IND 110 @ CHI 113 CHI W

2025-12-05 IND 120 @ CHI 105 IND W

2025-11-29 IND 101 @ CHI 103 CHI W

2025-03-10 IND 103 @ CHI 121 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score