If HOU visited UTA today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -13.8 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

-9.2

114.9

Offensive Rating

110.2

110.3

Defensive Rating

119.4

99.0

Pace

100.8

HOU (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

HOU wins

2026-04-03 HOU 106 @ UTA 140 UTA W

2026-02-23 HOU 105 @ UTA 125 UTA W

2025-12-01 HOU 125 @ UTA 133 UTA W

2025-11-30 HOU 129 @ UTA 101 HOU W

2025-04-02 HOU 105 @ UTA 143 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score