If HOU visited TOR today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 57.1% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.7 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

-4.1

114.9

Offensive Rating

109.6

110.3

Defensive Rating

113.6

99.0

Pace

100.6

HOU (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

HOU wins

2026-03-10 HOU 99 @ TOR 113 TOR W

2025-10-29 HOU 139 @ TOR 121 HOU W

2025-02-09 HOU 87 @ TOR 94 TOR W

2024-12-22 HOU 114 @ TOR 110 HOU W

2024-02-09 HOU 104 @ TOR 107 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 57.1% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score