If HOU visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 82.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.4 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

-2.8

114.9

Offensive Rating

113.5

110.3

Defensive Rating

116.3

99.0

Pace

100.1

HOU (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

HOU wins

2026-03-08 HOU 120 @ SAS 145 SAS W

2026-01-28 HOU 111 @ SAS 99 HOU W

2026-01-20 HOU 106 @ SAS 111 SAS W

2025-11-07 HOU 110 @ SAS 121 SAS W

2025-02-26 HOU 106 @ SAS 118 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 82.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score