If HOU visited ORL today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.8 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

-0.2

114.9

Offensive Rating

108.9

110.3

Defensive Rating

109.1

99.0

Pace

96.5

HOU (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

HOU wins

2026-02-26 HOU 113 @ ORL 108 HOU W

2025-11-16 HOU 113 @ ORL 117 ORL W

2025-03-19 HOU 116 @ ORL 108 HOU W

2025-03-10 HOU 84 @ ORL 97 ORL W

2024-04-09 HOU 106 @ ORL 118 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score