If HOU visited LAC today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.3 points for LAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

4.9

114.9

Offensive Rating

114.3

110.3

Defensive Rating

109.4

99.0

Pace

98.2

HOU (Away) LAC (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

LAC 42-40 W1 Avg margin last 5: +2.0

W GSW

L POR

L OKC

W DAL

W SAC

Head-to-Head History

LAC wins

HOU wins

2026-02-11 HOU 105 @ LAC 102 HOU W

2026-02-10 HOU 95 @ LAC 102 LAC W

2025-12-23 HOU 108 @ LAC 128 LAC W

2025-12-11 HOU 113 @ LAC 115 LAC W

2025-04-09 HOU 117 @ LAC 134 LAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score