If HOU visited IND today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.5 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

2.1

114.9

Offensive Rating

115.4

110.3

Defensive Rating

113.3

99.0

Pace

100.8

HOU (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

HOU wins

2026-02-02 HOU 118 @ IND 114 HOU W

2025-12-29 HOU 119 @ IND 126 IND W

2025-03-04 HOU 102 @ IND 115 IND W

2024-11-20 HOU 113 @ IND 130 IND W

2024-02-06 HOU 129 @ IND 132 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score