If HOU visited GSW today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.4 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

3.2

114.9

Offensive Rating

114.2

110.3

Defensive Rating

111.0

99.0

Pace

99.4

HOU (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

HOU wins

2026-04-05 HOU 117 @ GSW 116 HOU W

2026-03-05 HOU 115 @ GSW 113 HOU W

2025-11-26 HOU 104 @ GSW 100 HOU W

2025-05-04 HOU 103 @ GSW 89 HOU W

2025-05-02 HOU 115 @ GSW 107 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score