If HOU visited DET today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 70.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.5 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

2.1

114.9

Offensive Rating

114.6

110.3

Defensive Rating

112.5

99.0

Pace

100.3

HOU (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

HOU wins

2026-01-23 HOU 111 @ DET 104 HOU W

2025-10-24 HOU 115 @ DET 111 HOU W

2025-01-20 HOU 107 @ DET 96 HOU W

2024-11-10 HOU 101 @ DET 99 HOU W

2024-01-12 HOU 112 @ DET 110 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 70.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score