If HOU visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 61.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.8 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

3.8

114.9

Offensive Rating

118.9

110.3

Defensive Rating

115.1

99.0

Pace

100.7

HOU (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

HOU wins

2026-03-11 HOU 93 @ DEN 129 DEN W

2025-12-20 HOU 115 @ DEN 101 HOU W

2025-12-15 HOU 125 @ DEN 128 DEN W

2025-11-21 HOU 112 @ DEN 109 HOU W

2025-04-13 HOU 126 @ DEN 111 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score