If HOU visited DAL today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.9 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

-1.3

114.9

Offensive Rating

113.7

110.3

Defensive Rating

115.0

99.0

Pace

100.2

HOU (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

HOU wins

2026-01-31 HOU 107 @ DAL 111 DAL W

2026-01-03 HOU 104 @ DAL 110 DAL W

2025-12-06 HOU 109 @ DAL 122 DAL W

2025-11-03 HOU 102 @ DAL 110 DAL W

2025-03-14 HOU 96 @ DAL 133 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score