If HOU visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 61.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -13.7 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

4.6

Net Rating

-9.1

114.9

Offensive Rating

106.7

110.3

Defensive Rating

115.7

99.0

Pace

98.2

HOU (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

HOU wins

2026-02-19 HOU 105 @ CHA 101 HOU W

2026-02-05 HOU 109 @ CHA 99 HOU W

2024-12-23 HOU 114 @ CHA 101 HOU W

2024-10-23 HOU 110 @ CHA 105 HOU W

2024-01-26 HOU 138 @ CHA 104 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score