If GSW visited UTA today, our model would lean Golden State Warriors with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.4 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

-9.2

114.2

Offensive Rating

110.2

111.0

Defensive Rating

119.4

99.4

Pace

100.8

GSW (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

GSW wins

2026-03-09 GSW 116 @ UTA 119 UTA W

2026-01-28 GSW 140 @ UTA 124 GSW W

2026-01-03 GSW 114 @ UTA 123 UTA W

2025-11-24 GSW 117 @ UTA 134 UTA W

2025-02-05 GSW 128 @ UTA 131 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score