If GSW visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 74.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.3 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

-4.1

114.2

Offensive Rating

109.6

111.0

Defensive Rating

113.6

99.4

Pace

100.6

GSW (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

GSW wins

2026-01-20 GSW 145 @ TOR 127 GSW W

2025-12-28 GSW 127 @ TOR 141 TOR W

2025-03-20 GSW 114 @ TOR 117 TOR W

2025-01-13 GSW 101 @ TOR 104 TOR W

2024-03-01 GSW 120 @ TOR 105 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score