If GSW visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.0 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

-2.8

114.2

Offensive Rating

113.5

111.0

Defensive Rating

116.3

99.4

Pace

100.1

GSW (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

GSW wins

2026-04-01 GSW 127 @ SAS 113 GSW W

2026-02-11 GSW 126 @ SAS 113 GSW W

2025-11-14 GSW 109 @ SAS 108 GSW W

2025-11-12 GSW 125 @ SAS 120 GSW W

2025-04-09 GSW 114 @ SAS 111 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score