If GSW visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.9 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

-2.7

114.2

Offensive Rating

111.0

Defensive Rating

113.7

99.4

Pace

99.5

GSW (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

GSW wins

2026-01-13 GSW 97 @ POR 119 POR W

2025-12-14 GSW 131 @ POR 136 POR W

2025-11-21 GSW 127 @ POR 123 GSW W

2025-10-24 GSW 119 @ POR 139 POR W

2025-04-11 GSW 103 @ POR 86 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score