If GSW visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.2 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

-3.0

114.2

Offensive Rating

114.7

111.0

Defensive Rating

117.7

99.4

Pace

98.3

GSW (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

GSW wins

2026-02-05 GSW 101 @ PHX 97 GSW W

2025-12-20 GSW 116 @ PHX 119 PHX W

2025-12-18 GSW 98 @ PHX 99 PHX W

2025-11-04 GSW 107 @ PHX 118 PHX W

2025-04-08 GSW 133 @ PHX 95 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score