If GSW visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.4 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

-0.2

114.2

Offensive Rating

108.9

111.0

Defensive Rating

109.1

99.4

Pace

96.5

GSW (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

GSW wins

2025-12-22 GSW 97 @ ORL 120 ORL W

2025-11-18 GSW 113 @ ORL 121 ORL W

2025-02-27 GSW 121 @ ORL 115 GSW W

2025-02-03 GSW 99 @ ORL 104 ORL W

2024-03-27 GSW 101 @ ORL 93 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score