If GSW visited IND today, our model would lean Indiana Pacers with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.1 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

2.1

114.2

Offensive Rating

115.4

111.0

Defensive Rating

113.3

99.4

Pace

100.8

GSW (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

GSW wins

2025-11-09 GSW 83 @ IND 114 IND W

2025-11-01 GSW 109 @ IND 114 IND W

2025-01-10 GSW 96 @ IND 108 IND W

2024-12-23 GSW 111 @ IND 105 GSW W

2024-03-22 GSW 123 @ IND 111 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score