If GSW visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.3 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

-9.1

114.2

Offensive Rating

106.7

111.0

Defensive Rating

115.7

99.4

Pace

98.2

GSW (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

GSW wins

2026-01-17 GSW 116 @ CHA 136 CHA W

2025-12-31 GSW 132 @ CHA 125 GSW W

2025-03-03 GSW 119 @ CHA 101 GSW W

2025-02-25 GSW 92 @ CHA 128 CHA W

2024-03-29 GSW 115 @ CHA 97 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score