If GSW visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 61.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.3 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.2

Net Rating

-1.1

114.2

Offensive Rating

113.7

111.0

Defensive Rating

114.8

99.4

Pace

103.4

GSW (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

GSW wins

2026-03-21 GSW 110 @ ATL 126 ATL W

2026-01-11 GSW 124 @ ATL 111 GSW W

2025-03-22 GSW 115 @ ATL 124 ATL W

2024-11-20 GSW 97 @ ATL 120 ATL W

2024-02-03 GSW 134 @ ATL 141 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score