If DET visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.9 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-2.8

114.6

Offensive Rating

113.5

112.5

Defensive Rating

116.3

100.3

Pace

100.1

DET (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

DET wins

2026-03-05 DET 106 @ SAS 121 SAS W

2026-02-23 DET 114 @ SAS 103 DET W

2025-03-25 DET 96 @ SAS 122 SAS W

2025-02-21 DET 125 @ SAS 110 DET W

2024-04-14 DET 95 @ SAS 123 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score