If DET visited POR today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 57.1% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.8 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-2.7

114.6

Offensive Rating

111.0

112.5

Defensive Rating

113.7

100.3

Pace

99.5

DET (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

DET wins

2025-12-22 DET 110 @ POR 102 DET W

2025-12-05 DET 116 @ POR 122 POR W

2025-03-09 DET 119 @ POR 112 DET W

2025-01-06 DET 115 @ POR 118 POR W

2024-02-08 DET 128 @ POR 122 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 57.1% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score