If DET visited PHX today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.1 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-3.0

114.6

Offensive Rating

114.7

112.5

Defensive Rating

117.7

100.3

Pace

98.3

DET (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

DET wins

2026-01-29 DET 96 @ PHX 114 PHX W

2026-01-15 DET 105 @ PHX 108 PHX W

2025-01-18 DET 125 @ PHX 121 DET W

2024-12-21 DET 133 @ PHX 125 DET W

2024-02-14 DET 100 @ PHX 116 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score