If DET visited CHI today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.7 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-1.6

114.6

Offensive Rating

113.2

112.5

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.3

Pace

103.6

DET (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

DET wins

2026-02-21 DET 126 @ CHI 110 DET W

2026-01-07 DET 93 @ CHI 108 CHI W

2025-11-12 DET 113 @ CHI 124 CHI W

2025-10-22 DET 111 @ CHI 115 CHI W

2025-02-12 DET 128 @ CHI 110 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score