If DET visited ATL today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.2 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

2.1

Net Rating

-1.1

114.6

Offensive Rating

113.7

112.5

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.3

Pace

103.4

DET (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

DET wins

2026-03-25 DET 130 @ ATL 129 DET W

2025-12-12 DET 115 @ ATL 142 ATL W

2025-12-01 DET 98 @ ATL 99 ATL W

2025-11-18 DET 120 @ ATL 112 DET W

2025-02-23 DET 148 @ ATL 143 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score