If DEN visited WAS today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -16.0 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-12.2

118.9

Offensive Rating

105.8

115.1

Defensive Rating

118.0

100.7

Pace

101.8

DEN (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

DEN wins

2026-01-22 DEN 107 @ WAS 97 DEN W

2026-01-17 DEN 115 @ WAS 121 WAS W

2025-03-15 DEN 126 @ WAS 123 DEN W

2024-12-07 DEN 113 @ WAS 122 WAS W

2024-02-22 DEN 110 @ WAS 130 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score