If DEN visited UTA today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -13.0 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-9.2

118.9

Offensive Rating

110.2

115.1

Defensive Rating

119.4

100.7

Pace

100.8

DEN (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

DEN wins

2026-04-01 DEN 130 @ UTA 117 DEN W

2026-03-27 DEN 129 @ UTA 135 UTA W

2026-03-02 DEN 128 @ UTA 125 DEN W

2025-12-22 DEN 112 @ UTA 135 UTA W

2025-03-28 DEN 93 @ UTA 129 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score