If DEN visited TOR today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.9 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-4.1

118.9

Offensive Rating

109.6

115.1

Defensive Rating

113.6

100.7

Pace

100.6

DEN (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

DEN wins

2026-03-20 DEN 115 @ TOR 121 TOR W

2025-12-31 DEN 106 @ TOR 103 DEN W

2024-11-04 DEN 119 @ TOR 121 TOR W

2024-10-28 DEN 127 @ TOR 125 DEN W

2024-03-11 DEN 119 @ TOR 125 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score