If DEN visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.6 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-2.8

118.9

Offensive Rating

113.5

115.1

Defensive Rating

116.3

100.7

Pace

100.1

DEN (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

DEN wins

2026-04-12 DEN 128 @ SAS 118 DEN W

2026-04-04 DEN 134 @ SAS 136 SAS W

2026-03-12 DEN 136 @ SAS 131 DEN W

2025-11-28 DEN 139 @ SAS 136 DEN W

2025-04-02 DEN 113 @ SAS 106 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score