If DEN visited PHI today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.1 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-6.3

118.9

Offensive Rating

111.0

115.1

Defensive Rating

117.3

100.7

Pace

98.1

DEN (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

DEN wins

2026-03-17 DEN 96 @ PHI 124 PHI W

2026-01-05 DEN 125 @ PHI 124 DEN W

2025-01-31 DEN 137 @ PHI 134 DEN W

2025-01-21 DEN 109 @ PHI 144 PHI W

2024-01-27 DEN 105 @ PHI 111 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score