If DEN visited ORL today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 57.1% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.0 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-0.2

118.9

Offensive Rating

108.9

115.1

Defensive Rating

109.1

100.7

Pace

96.5

DEN (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

DEN wins

2025-12-27 DEN 126 @ ORL 127 ORL W

2025-12-18 DEN 115 @ ORL 126 ORL W

2025-02-06 DEN 90 @ ORL 112 ORL W

2025-01-19 DEN 113 @ ORL 100 DEN W

2024-01-05 DEN 122 @ ORL 120 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 57.1% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score