If DEN visited NOP today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -13.2 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

-9.4

118.9

Offensive Rating

109.7

115.1

Defensive Rating

119.1

100.7

Pace

99.8

DEN (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

DEN wins

2026-01-13 DEN 122 @ NOP 116 DEN W

2025-11-19 DEN 125 @ NOP 118 DEN W

2025-10-29 DEN 88 @ NOP 122 NOP W

2025-02-05 DEN 119 @ NOP 144 NOP W

2025-02-03 DEN 113 @ NOP 125 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score