If DEN visited MIL today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 83.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.4 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

3.8

Net Rating

2.4

118.9

Offensive Rating

115.1

Defensive Rating

112.7

100.7

Pace

99.9

DEN (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

DEN wins

2026-01-23 DEN 102 @ MIL 100 DEN W

2026-01-11 DEN 104 @ MIL 108 MIL W

2025-03-26 DEN 117 @ MIL 127 MIL W

2025-02-27 DEN 112 @ MIL 121 MIL W

2024-02-12 DEN 95 @ MIL 112 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 83.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score